RT forecasts: Epiphany frosts will steer clear of Kazan

Precipitation in the city will be moderate after the departure of the Black Sea cyclone.

(KZN.RU, January 17, Ksenia Shvetsova). With the departure of the Black Sea cyclone, precipitation in Kazan will be moderate. Weather forecasters assure that heavy snowfalls, as in recent days, are not foreseen in the near future, and the Epiphany frosts will completely pass by the capital of Tatarstan.

The main feature of this season was the fact that there was practically no thaw since the beginning of winter. In January a lot of precipitation fell, and a high snow cover was formed. The precipitation fell unevenly, mostly heavy snowfall occurred in Kazan and the western regions of Tatarstan.

34.5 mm of precipitation fell in the capital of the republic since early January, which is 105% of the monthly norm, said Irina Truschina, the head of the meteorological forecast department of the Hydrometeorological Center of the RT, at the press conference at the news agency “Tatar-inform”.

Heavy snowfalls cause a lot of trouble to the citizens and road services since the beginning of winter, but for agriculture is quite useful. On average, the height of snow cover in the Republic is fr om 1.5 to 2 monthly norms, and the depth of soil freezing has increased, today it is 40-65 cm. All this will enrich and saturate the soil with moisture with the arrival of spring.

The Black Sea cyclone affected mainly Kazan and the western regions of the republic, it was from 12 (in Kazan) to 19 mm of snow. “12 millimeters is more than one-third of the monthly precipitation norm”, explained I. Truschina.

She also spoke about the weather in Tatarstan in the coming days. According to her, the cyclonic nature of the weather is predicted before the end of the current and early next week. Precipitation is expected sometimes, but such snowfalls as in the past 24 hours are not forecasted in the near future. A little snow will fall in the coming night. By the morning hours, precipitation will from small to moderate (in the form of snow and sleet).

This year, the Epiphany frosts will steer clear from the inhabitants of the republic and its capital. On the very Epiphany night, the temperature will be from - 3 to - 8 degrees Celsius. On the afternoon of January 19, the air temperature will be from - 4 degrees to + 1 degrees. On this day, snow and sleet are expected, a blizzard, light icing and increased winds up to 17 m/s in some places.

“At the moment, our region is under the influence of northern cyclones. They move in northern latitudes and allow the cold to penetrate into our areas, but no severe frosts yet”, added I. Trushchina.

The weather forecast for the heating period from October to March, which is annually announced in the autumn, indicates that January, February and March will not significantly deviate from the norm in temperature in the republic and its capital. However, the validity of such predictions is small, from 60 to 80%, said Feliks Gogol, the head of the Hydrometeorological Center of the RT. “The accuracy of the forecast will be less for longer periods. There is such situation in all countries. There are no objective models that would allow forecasting the weather for the whole season with the same accuracy as for the next three days”, he explained. He added that an objective weather forecast with high justification can be done in the region for 5 days maximum. Thus, the accuracy of short-term forecasts on the first day is 97-98%, on the third day – 93-95%, and then descending.

The quality of equipment for making forecasts has a huge impact on the accuracy of weather predictions. Today, Tatarstan is participating in a pilot project, and modernization of agrometeorological observation networks is underway. This year the work was completed, observation points were installed at meteorological stations, the network of meteorological stations was expanded due to two additional posts. In addition, Tatarstan forecasters began to use portable soil moisture and temperature meters. With them, soil characteristics can be investigated in any area, and not only wh ere weather stations are located. “This year we have taken 720 soil samples to determine their agro-hydropower properties. This will allow determining the stock of productive moisture in the soil, which is the most important factor for the harvest”, said F. Gogol.

In total, there are 23 automatic measuring posts for weather forecasting and soil analysis installed in the country.